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A former special forces colonel, minister of state Al Carns has recently been making strategic moves warning that the UK needs to be preparing for war with Russia.

“The shadow of war is at Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he stated, in remarks that go beyond previous warnings by his boss, the defence secretary.

“Collectively, everybody – what is their role if we get caught in an fight for survival, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a military endeavour?”

It was blunt language from the middle-aged born in Scotland MP, who has had an remarkably rapid rise to his role of armed forces minister.

Rapid Rise to Prominence

And inevitably for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is speculation about whether he is a potential future leader – as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.

This time, however, some governing party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a candidate if and when the opportunity arises.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the danger of being overhyped as a politician with a personal history colleagues think will resonate with the public – without enough thought of whether they have the track record and political instincts to make it to the top.

From the Battlefield to Westminster

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before enlisting in the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “for gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a surprise when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to stand as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, shortly before he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately identified as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the 2024 election. He was elevated later that year to the more prominent position with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

Chiselled and confident, Carns has been an occasional media performer for the government, and has been an sharp partisan operator when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by ascending the world's highest peak in under five days without acclimatising on the mountain, using xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name was floated as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his supporters began canvassing colleagues about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office firmly backing another candidate.

Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to stop from challenging the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear overly eager when there is no opening at the top. There is also a apprehension about the rapid rise of a star performer from outside politics.

“There’s no evidence that being senior in the military equates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is completely untested.”