Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges With Putin Concerning Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near lengthy conflict in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington without results

The frequently changing summit is another development in the president's attempts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he said.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.

Reduced Influence

Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.

Add in Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.

At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.

Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in August produced little tangible outcome.

Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.

The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

Trump insisted that he was not being played by Putin.

"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.

So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately urging Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.

On the campaign trail previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is proving harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.

Mark Yang
Mark Yang

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